On-​​demand automotive fleet electrification can catalyze global transportation decarbonization and smart urban mobility

On-​​demand automotive fleet electrification can catalyze global transportation decarbonization and smart urban mobility

Mobility on-demand vehicle (MODV) services have grown explosively in recent years, threatening targets for local air pollution and global carbon emissions. Despite evidence that on-demand automotive fleets are ripe for electrification, adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in fleet applications has been hindered by lack of charging infrastructure and long charging times. Recent research on electrification programs in Chinese megacities suggests that top-down policy targets can spur investment in charging infrastructure, while intelligent charging coordination can greatly reduce requirements for battery range and infrastructure, as well as revenue losses due to time spent charging. Such capability may require labor policy reform to allow fleet operators to manage their drivers’ charging behavior, along with collection and integration of several key datasets including: 1) vehicle trajectories and energy consumption, 2) charging infrastructure installation costs, and 3) real-time charging station availability. In turn, digitization enabled by fleet electrification holds the potential to enable a host of smart urban mobility strategies, including integration of public transit with innovative transportation systems and emission-based pricing policies.

Exploring the Enabling Environments, Inherent Characteristics and Intrinsic Motivations Fostering Global Electricity Decarbonization

The need for transitioning towards low-carbon energy systems, and the recent boom in available data, allows for a constant re-evaluation of global electricity sector decarbonization progress, and its underlying theoretical assumptions. Arguably, the existing decarbonization literature and institutional support frameworks focus on top-down supply side mechanisms, where policies, goals, access to financing, and technology innovation are suggested as the main drivers. Here, we synthesize eleven global datasets that range from electricity decarbonization progress, to quality of governance, to international fossil fuel subsidies, and environmental policies, among several others, and use methods from data mining to explore the factors that may be fostering or hindering decarbonization progress. This exercise allows us to present numerous hypotheses worth exploring in future research. Some of these hypotheses suggest that policies might be ineffective when misaligned with country specific motivators and inherent characteristics, that even in the absence of policy there are particular inherent characteristics that foster decarbonization progress (e.g., relatively high local energy prices, foreign energy import dependency and the absence of a large extractive resource base), and that the interaction ofcountry-specific enabling environments, inherent characteristics, and motivations is what determines decarbonization progress, rather than stand-alone support mechanisms. We present the hypothesis that existin gsupport mechanisms for decarbonization may be relying too much on blanket strategies (e.g., policies, targets),and that there is a need for support mechanisms that encompass a wider diversity of country-specific underlying conditions.

* RAEL LUNCH * energyPATHWAYS: an open source model for exploring economy wide deep decarbonization pathways

Ryan Jones & Ben Haley: Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project energyPATHWAYS: an open source model for exploring economy wide deep decarbonization pathways

Power system balancing for deep decarbonization of the electricity sector

We explore the operations, balancing requirements, and costs of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system under a stringent greenhouse gas emission reduction target. We include sensitivities for technology costs and availability, fuel prices and emissions, and demand profile. Meeting an emissions target of 85% below 1990 levels is feasible across a range of assumptions, but the cost of achieving the goal and the technology mix are uncertain. Deployment of solar photovoltaics is the main driver of storage deployment: the diurnal periodicity of solar energy availability results in opportunities for daily arbitrage that storage technologies with several hours of duration are well suited to provide. Wind output exhibits seasonal variations and requires storage with a large energy subcomponent to avoid curtailment. The combination of low-cost solar technology and advanced battery technology can provide substantial savings through 2050, greatly mitigating the cost of climate change mitigation. Policy goals for storage deployment should be based on the function storage will play on the grid and therefore incorporate both the power rating and duration of the storage system. These goals should be set as part of overall portfolio development, as system flexibility needs will vary with the grid mix.

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Leveraging IRA Leadership

Leverage the IRA for Global Clean Energy Leadership

David Williams & Daniel M Kammen

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a profound step in advancing climate leadership particularly from a deeply divided nation. Now is the time to show how this step leads to progress, profits and jobs where we are not divided: advancing US overseas engagement and climate leadership. To do, Congress could extend the IRA tax credits for US firms working internationally.

The US has much work at home to do to usher in the clean energy revolution.  We need to act globally, however, or domestic progress will mean very little. We can achieve this by extending proven tax incentive tools to unlock the necessary investment across Africa, Asia and Latin America.  This will build markets and create jobs for the clean energy sector in the US. Developers will have an entirely new pool of sophisticated investors and the capital necessary to match the scale of the climate challenges.

While many bemoan the dominant role China plays in investing in emerging economies, extending US tax credits for clean energy projects provides US companies a means to build markets and accelerate global decarbonization.  Take a look at the opportunities in Africa.

The number of unelectrified Africans has remained nearly unchanged at over 600 million for over a decade, despite efforts aimed at achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG7) to provide global energy access by 2030.  At COP26 in Glasgow last November, the international community made a commitment of $100 billion to industrializing nations. This is an order of magnitude smaller than what is needed on an annual, ongoing, basis to build decarbonized, affordable, and resilient energy future. Clean energy is now cheaper to build and simply operate than existing fossil fuel projects.  Africa needs massive and sustained financing for new, bankable projects.

The Africa electrification story is complex because ‘bankable’ projects are dependent not only on designing good projects but also on the twin constraints of sustaining capital from investors and then also able to navigate complex local regulatory issues. Sub-Saharan African projects are often held up because of a lack of ‘First loss capital’ (high risk) funding that leverages bank and central government investments.

Providing risk-tolerant ‘first-loss’ capital at scale leverages hundreds of billions in a global renewables industry. Operationally this could be done by extending the IRA to specific projects in Africa. This would strengthen investment by US firms and support the geopolitical goals of the US. This tax credit would afford the same incentives across to the border that already include investments in solar, wind, geothermal, sustainable hydropower, energy efficiency upgrades, and transmission and distribution projects.

Tax incentive investing works. The US Investment Tax Credit is responsible for the dramatic successes of solar across the US since its launch in the Energy Policy act of 2005. The program has been highly popular and an economic engine creating over 230,000 jobs in every state with an annual private investment of over $30 billion all while making renewable energy more affordable than conventional energy sources.  The program has challenges but is resoundingly successful by relying on private companies to make good investments.

The economic needs for African energy are tremendous and aid is simply not enough. At COP26 the US and European Partners committed $7.5 billion in aid for the ailing South African energy sector.  Nigeria has publicly stated a request for a comparable amount.  These investments are critically needed to upgrade or build grid transmission assets, invest in new clean energy projects, reduce methane (CH₄) fugitive emissions, invest in energy access, and launch electric vehicle markets.  $400 billion are needed beyond business as usual for each country to achieve a clean energy transition. That is almost a trillion dollars of investment opportunity for US companies to support Just Energy Transitions in just two nations. Rewarding US companies for investing in commercial clean energy projects in Africa will enable a transition that cannot be achieved with public sector funds alone.

This can be launched quickly and can be in place soon after the November COP27 meeting in Egypt. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Polity found that at least 55 of the largest corporations in the US paid no federal corporate income taxes on their 2020 profits. Over $8 billion in avoided tax a year is in complex offshore structures. The tax incentive we propose correct this by providing the private sector a clear means to back up their public statements of commitment to a Just Energy Transition via direct investments in the neediest and fastest growing markets.

This ‘simple’ solution requires only a modest change to the US investment Tax Credit program to extend eligibility to certain international projects. The US direct aid and web of supporting wrap-around services certainly make a difference but are not enough. Extending proven US policy would be a significant catalyst for capital directed to industrializing energy markets. In the past year we have seen multi-billion-dollar investments in solar, storage, and electric vehicles in Angola, plans in Kenya to move from a 4 GW national grid to 100 GW by mid-century, and both Nigeria and South Africa commit to going carbon-free if investment flows to solar, wind, energy storage, electrified transportation, and green hydrogen.  The markets are there, the time is now, and what is most needed is a means to move capital.

The world’s climate-vulnerable are susceptible to the impacts of climate change, and are the most affected by weaponizing energy. This is a unique moment where political will can bring incremental tax code changes that democratize, de-carbonizes, and decreases the conflict costs of energy around the world. This just might be the match that lights renewable solutions for the rest of the world.

ENERGY AND WATER PERFORMANCE OF AN OFF-​​GRID TINY HOUSE IN CALIFORNIA

The impetus for buildings to decarbonize and move towards radical energy and water efficiency is increasingly strong and identified as a priority within the green building sector. The tiny house movement offers an opportunity to both address the challenges of affordable housing and contribute to residential building decarbonization. Tiny houses de-emphasize mass consumption and excessive belongings and have potential to address equity issues such as gentrification by providing living spaces to lowincome residents in desirable housing locations. This paper analyzes the Tiny House in My Backyard (THIMBY) project, investigating building sustainability concepts through the design-build-occupy process in a three-year-old structure. THIMBY demonstrates energy and water efficiency technologies inside an award-winning small living space (18.5 m2). THIMBY was designed to reduce energy and water use by 87 and 82% compared to California residential averages. In practice, it has reduced site energy by 88% and has emitted 96% fewer carbon emissions than a 2100 square foot California Energy Commission 2016 Title 24 minimally compliant home. We discuss the differences between design and performance of energy and water systems, which we find offer important lessons for the further expansion of the tiny house movement and other alternative and micro green housing types. We find that optimizing such houses through integration of energy and water saving technologies, home energy management systems, and strong communication between modelers, builders and occupants will be essential to achieving dramatic energy (87%), water (82%), and carbon (96%) savings.

Qin, Guangyu

Guangyu joins us for a year from North China Electric Power University, where he has already worked on clean energy markets and wind energy forecasting. At RAEL (and LBL) he will be working on aggressive decarbonization pathways for China, and the expansion of clean energy services in heavy industry. His recent paper on day-ahead wind forecasting is available on the RAEL publications pages.  To take a look, click here. Send him note and welcome & get to know Guangyu!

Interview of Governor Jerry Brown with Dan Kammen

For the May 2021 original in Breakthroughs Magazine of Rausser College of Natural Resources: click here.

Interview by Dan Kammen | Spring 2021Jerry Brown, BA ’61 Classics, co-chairs the California-China Climate Institute. He served as the 34th and 39th governor of California, from 1975 to 1983 and from 2011 to 2019. While he was governor, California established nation-leading targets to protect the environment and fight climate change, and by 2030 the state will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels, double the rate of energy-efficiency savings in its buildings, and reduce petroleum use in cars and trucks by up to 50 percent, in part by putting five million zero-emission vehicles on California’s roads. Under a law and an executive order Brown signed, California will generate 100 percent of its electricity from renewable sources and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

Launched in 2019, the California-China Climate Institute (CCCI) is chaired by former California governor Jerry Brown, BA ’61 Classics, and China’s top climate change official, Xie Zhenhua. A partnership between the University of California system and the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University, the institute is co-housed in Rausser College of Natural Resources and Berkeley Law. CCCI is focused on joint research, training, and dialogue between the U.S. and China, with the goal of advancing climate action. Professor Dan Kammen, a former U.S. State Department science envoy who serves on the academic advisory committee for CCCI, recently sat down with Brown to discuss goals for the institute, how research can affect policy more quickly, and reasons for optimism on climate change.Kammen: You’ve had a long and busy career. Why have you chosen to focus your time now on climate change, and why is UC Berkeley the best place to do so? Brown: There are many important issues, but to me, climate change supersedes them all. As the premier public university globally and in California, which also happens to be close to Sacramento, UC Berkeley was a natural fit for this institute, and we’re excited to connect leading researchers here with those in China. Additionally, in China there’s a lot of respect for and interest in collaborating with the University of California. What are your goals for the institute? Our primary goal is to advance partnerships between the U.S. and China and to encourage dialogue on climate change and all that is entailed in addressing it. So much of the discussion around international affairs is about national security; there’s very little talk of common interests or vulnerabilities. A key objective for this institute is to change that. It doesn’t have to just be about what’s good for California or the United States or what’s good for China: our interests are interwoven just as the web of life is interwoven. We share membership in the human race, living at a time when technology makes us ever more interdependent. We ought to recognize that and base our actions, thinking, and research on that fact. Scientists know it, but politicians are almost congenitally incapable of recognizing a common interest. That concept is critical, and it strikes me that with your involvement—having conversations with leaders in both countries—there’s an opportunity for the institute to affect policy quickly. The time to make a difference on climate has shrunk so dramatically. We’ve got to get the ideas right and get action in place. Exactly. Researchers from all over the world already work together: that’s the hallmark of science. Science leads to technological innovation, and innovation informs government policies. Zero-emission vehicles, carbon pricing, building efficiency, decarbonizing the electric grid—that all has to happen very fast. We must clarify the stakes, elucidate the path forward, explain the economic and social costs, and determine the technological hurdles. We have to move knowledge more quickly from the margins of science and academia into the minds of bureaucrats, policy makers, politicians, and public officials. I also see the need for more mutual, benign competitiveness, which can motivate and galvanize a greater effort on the part of both the U.S. and China. So in addition to working on joint solutions, we can encourage friendly competition to see who can accelerate decarbonization more quickly? Yes. There’s so much attention on what we don’t like about China, with little attention to what we need to do. Honestly facing our hurdles and roadblocks would give us more empathy and insight into what China is facing and allow for more candor and truth about how both nations can operate at the level of change. We haven’t sufficiently confronted the sheer beast of economic, social, and political inertia in our own country. It’s pretty overwhelming, and in fact I often marvel that you appear to be so…I won’t say optimistic, but you don’t look overwhelmed. Dan Kammen is the director of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory. He has parallel appointments in Rausser College’s Energy and Resources Group, the Goldman School of Public Policy, and the Department of Nuclear Engineering. He was appointed the first Environment and Climate Partnership for the Americas Fellow by then–secretary of state Hillary Clinton in April 2010. He shares the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as a contributor to a report for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I’m not overwhelmed, and you’re partly to thank for that. As governor, you presided over the growth of a solar industry in California that went from passionate but small to now employing more people than all three of our state’s utilities. Whether it is solar, battery storage, offshore wind, or integrating food production into urban areas, there are many exciting things that could follow the model that you helped champion. It starts with someone having a great idea. The institute’s role is translating the good thinking of our researchers into digestible policy suggestions. American politicians don’t spend much of their time thinking about climate change. So we have to get them thinking about it. Fortunately, the Biden administration has made climate action and green jobs a priority. Are you hopeful about the role of the United States on climate change going forward? I think it’s very important that America completely move beyond the Trump era and start taking serious actions, and then in that context we can push other major polluters like China and India to do likewise. Federal leadership was on hiatus for four years, but the world has made incredible progress in talking about climate. Now we have to do climate. The fact that we have John Kerry as U.S. special presidential envoy for climate and Gina McCarthy as domestic climate czar is promising. Biden’s focus on jobs is an integral component of climate action. We need to keep our eye on a path forward, one that will employ billions of people while also avoiding climate disaster. California is trying its best to be on that path of reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. Are you optimistic about the state and the nation getting there? We’re much further today than I would have envisioned just a few years ago. Now we even have a few oil companies talking about peak oil or net carbon neutrality—that’s a sea change. And because of the focus changing at companies here and worldwide, because of the election of Biden and the appointments he’s making, I think we can do it. We need to keep up the momentum. Governor [Gavin] Newsom has set a target of achieving only zero-emission vehicles in California that’s earlier than the target I had previously set. Good—he’s raising the bar. Let’s do more. In 2013, China’s top climate change official, Xie Zhenhua (left), and then-governor Jerry Brown signed an agreement to boost cooperation on climate change. Photo courtesty of the Office of Governor Brown.

Kammen: Here at Berkeley, our biggest source of renewable energy isn’t solar or wind; it’s excited young people. What would you say to our students who are embarking on careers and hope to address the climate crisis? Brown: Ask yourself, What’s my life all about? What is meaningful? When we talk about something as big as climate change and how it will affect lives in California and around the world, it’s…not quite theological but of a similar universal dimension. It’s not about making a little more money or having a better house: it’s about how life is going to be structured going forward. How much can we reduce future suffering by dealing with climate change? Whether you are in biology, political science, chemistry, this is motivating. When they were building Chartres Cathedral centuries ago, the people doing the work were never going to see the finished structure. But there was a worldview of a divine order, which they were honoring each day by the contribution they were making. Here we are honoring the earth, the atmosphere, and life itself. The humble choice of your major connects to something much bigger that will endure beyond your own lifetime. That, to me, gives the dimension that people desperately need. Climate change is an issue of such transcendent importance and value that you can give your life to it, and it’s worth it. This is big stuff. It doesn’t get any bigger! Kammen: Indeed. I’ll close with a lighthearted one. What’s your favorite place on the Berkeley campus? Brown: It’s hard to pick a favorite, but I’ll always remember, when I was here as a student in 1960, from the eighth floor of the International House you could look out a window and see the sun setting beyond the Golden Gate Bridge and Mount Tamalpais. What a view. In February, the California-China Climate Institute announced that longtime global climate leader and former chair of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) Mary Nichols will join the institute as vice chair. Nichols has served on CARB under three governors and as California’s secretary for natural resources. When not working for the State of California, she has been a senior staff attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council and an assistant administrator in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Air and Regulation. She also headed the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA. “The California-China Climate Institute has created a platform for top leaders in California, the U.S., and China to share and advance climate policy at a time when doors have slammed shut elsewhere,” says Nichols. “Our climate emergency demands that we continue to push for collective solutions backed by thoughtful, actionable research and analysis.”