PublicationJournal Article Deep carbon reductions in California require electrification and integration across economic sectors

Published:
December 9, 2013
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:

Meet­ing a green­house gas (GHG) reduc­tion tar­get of 80% below 1990 lev­els in the year 2050 requires detailed long-term plan­ning due to com­plex­i­ty, iner­tia, and path depen­den­cy in the ener­gy sys­tem. A detailed inves­ti­ga­tion of sup­ply and demand alter­na­tives is con­duct­ed to assess require­ments for future Cal­i­for­nia ener­gy sys­tems that can meet the 2050 GHG tar­get. Two com­po­nents are devel­oped here that build nov­el ana­lyt­ic capac­i­ty and extend pre­vi­ous stud­ies: (1) detailed bot­tom-up pro­jec­tions of ener­gy demand across the build­ing, indus­try and trans­porta­tion sec­tors; and (2) a high-res­o­lu­tion vari­able renew­able resource capac­i­ty plan­ning mod­el (SWITCH) that min­i­mizes the cost of elec­tric­i­ty while meet­ing GHG pol­i­cy goals in the 2050 time­frame. Mul­ti­ple path­ways exist to a low-GHG future, all involv­ing increased effi­cien­cy, elec­tri­fi­ca­tion, and a dra­mat­ic shift from fos­sil fuels to low-GHG ener­gy. The elec­tric­i­ty sys­tem is found to have a diverse, cost-effec­tive set of options that meet aggres­sive GHG reduc­tion tar­gets. This con­clu­sion holds even with increased demand from trans­porta­tion and heat­ing, but the opti­mal lev­els of wind and solar deploy­ment depend on the tem­po­ral char­ac­ter­is­tics of the result­ing load pro­file. Long-term pol­i­cy sup­port is found to be a key miss­ing ele­ment for the suc­cess­ful attain­ment of the 2050 GHG tar­get in California.

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